Rio Rico, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS65 KTWC 240830
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 AM MST Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal afternoon temperatures across all of
Southeast Arizona through the first half of next week, then
gradual warming the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather into next week with warm, dry and
occasionally breezy conditions anticipated across all of Southeast
Arizona.

A little cooling is in store for today as thickness values
decrease in response to a dry trough of low pressure developing
across the southern half of California. Expect similar breeziness
today compared to yesterday with brief near critical fire weather
conditions possible late this afternoon.

This trough will eventually track east across the Great Basin
Sunday into Monday with another weak dry upper-low developing
across southern California/southwest Arizona Tuesday. We had been
advertising a shortwave ridge axis developing across the southern
Rockies/New Mexico the past few days that would import some mid-
level moisture into the far eastern portions of the CWA next week.
The position of the upper-low Tuesday is east of previous runs
which would initially shift the mid-level theta-e ridge slightly
east. In general, this would keep the moisture at-bay in southern
New Mexico through Wednesday.

Split-flow in the Eastern Pacific Wednesday and Thursday will then
result in yet another dry upper-low to develop off the coast of
Southern California and Northern Baja Thursday and Friday. This
offshore feature will allow the shortwave ridge axis to drift
west into Southeast Arizona late next week. This would essentially
draw the mid-level moisture east into the far eastern portions of
SE Arizona. The combination of this moisture and the dry sub-
cloud layer may result in dry elevated thunderstorms with the
potential for gusty and erratic outflows near the evaporating
downdrafts, especially Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z. SCT-BKN high clouds AOA 20k ft
AGL through the period. SFC winds light and terrain driven less
than 10 kts thru the late morning, then SWLY/WLY 12-18 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts thru 25/03Z. SFC wind becoming light and
terrain driven less than 10 kts overnight. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 30
mph today into early this evening with minimum RH values around 5
percent...producing brief near critical thresholds. Breezy afternoon
conditions will persist every afternoon into next week due to
strong surface heating. Otherwise, single digit min RH values at
all elevations will persist over the next week, with poor
overnight recoveries.

Although confidence remains low at this time, there is the
potential for some mid-level moisture to move into far eastern
areas (along the Arizona and New Mexico state line) by the end of
next week into next weekend. This may lead to some afternoon
buildups and/or isolated dry lightning strikes as early as Thursday,
but more likely Friday into next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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